基于典型中原地级市洛阳市2012—2021年人口和社会经济统计面板数据，利用位序—规模法则、人口分布结构指数、人口空间重心转移模型等分析了其人口分布时空演变特征；并利用全局空间自相关和冷热点分析研究了其人口空间格局；通过构建社会发展综合指标评价体系，利用地理探测器和地理加权回归模型综合分析了其人口演变影响因素。结果表明：①洛阳市人口规模多集中于中小型县区，人口密度不断增加且地区差异显著，整体呈东北高、西南低态势；②2012—2021年人口分布不均衡指数和集中指数呈逐年递增趋势，人口分布趋于集中，人口重心位于伊川县且呈西南向东北移动趋势；③人口空间分布具有明显的空间集聚特征，东北地区为显著热点区域；④服务业水平、城镇化水平和医疗水平为长期性较强主导因子，且经济发展水平与城镇化水平的协同作用最强，人均GDP和医疗机构数影响由正向转为负向，而社会消费品零销总额则由负向转为正向，且影响程度逐渐减弱，第二产业占比在不同县区的作用强度具有显著差异性。

Based on panel data of population and socio-economic statistics of Luoyang City, a typical prefecture-level city in the Central Plains region, from 2012 to 2021, we used the order-scale rule, population distribution structure index and population spatial gravity center transfer model to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of population distribution, used global spatial autocorrelation and hot-spot analysis methods to study the spatial pattern of population, and used GeoDetector model and geographically weighted regression(GWR) model to analyze the influence factors of population changes from the perspective of social development. The research results indicate that ①the population in Luoyang is predominantly concentrated in small and medium-sized counties, with a continuously increasing population density and significant regional differences. Overall, the spatial distribution presents high in the northeast and low in the southwest pattern.②The imbalance index and concentration index of population distribution show an increasing trend from 2012 to 2021, indicating a trend towards population concentration.The population gravity center is located in Yichuan County and exhibits a southwest to northeast movement.③The spatial distribution of population exhibits distinct spatial clustering characteristics, with the northeast region being a significant hotspot.④The levels of service industry, urbanization,and medical care are consistently strong long-term dominant factors, with the synergy between economic development and urbanization being the most robust. Per capita GDP and the number of medical institution transfer from positive to negative impact, while the total retail sales of social consumer goods transfers from negative to positive impact, with a tendency towards a weakening effect. The proportion of secondary industry demonstrates strong spatial heterogeneity.